Posts Tagged ‘football probabilities’

Sportsbook Website – Teams to Follow in Over/Unders in Football

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It has just been four weeks but there are some definite trends that are showing up in the NFL and some squads to follow as you bet over/unders at the sportsbook website. Two squads are perfect in terms of going over or under the total so far at the sportsbook. The Patriots have gone over the total in all four of their competitions this year while the Minnesota Vikings have fallen under the total in all 3 of their competitions.



The Patriots rose over the total again this past Monday night as their special teams were amazing in a 41-14 win over Miami. The Patriots have been pretty excellent on offense this year with Tom Brady and even though their defense played okay vs Miami, they haven’t yet been pretty excellent overall. It has resulted in four straight overs vs the probabilities at the online sportsbook. The Patriots went 10-6 last year and have made some adjustments since that time. They have released tight end Chris Baker after just a year, and they lost Jarvis Green and Benjamin Watson to the Denver broncos and the Cleveland Browns respectively. Wide receiver Randy Moss was furthermore traded to the Minnesota Vikings.

Vikings Under – The Vikings have fallen under the total in all 3 of their competitions. They had a bye this past week and play the New York Jets on Monday night in what figures to be yet another low scoring competition. The Vikings offense has been Adrian Peterson and nothing else since Brett Favre has looked old and tired. Minnesota’s defense is excellent and overall their competitions have been low scoring. The Vikings have obviously been in headlines due to the circus around Favre’s meant retirement and an ankle injury. The Vikings paid lots of money to keep the gifted but aging Favre on board, and this might finally be the year that strategy does not pay off. Following years of promising retirement simply to come back, if Favre’s play does not boost soon, this might in fact finally be his last year.

Over Teams – 8 squads have gone over the total in 3 of their four competitions this year. They are the New York Jets, Texans, Jacksonville jaguars, Colts, San diego chargers, Oakland raiders, Denver broncos and Cardinals. Did you notice anything about those squads? Just about one of them are AFC squads. The scoring is in the AFC this year.

Under Teams – There are 7 squads that have fallen under the total at the sportsbook in 3 of their four competitions. Baltimore and Pittsburgh are the two squads from the AFC which is sensible thinking about their strong defenses. The other five squads are from the NFC. They are Philadelphia, Chicago, Green Bay, Carolina and St. Louis. The sole surprise from that group is Green Bay since they’ve got a strong offense. It ought to be noted that 3 squads, Dallas, Kansas City and Tampa Bay have played only 3 competitions with two of their 3 going under the total at the sportsbook website.


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Week 5 NFL Prospects Summary

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It was yet another week for long shots versus the NFL prospects. Week 5 was dominated by teams getting points. The long shots went a sizzling 9-4 versus the NFL prospects proceeding into Monday night’s competition.



There are no unbeaten teams left in the NFL after 5 weeks as Kansas City lost at Indianapolis. That competition was one of the couple of where the long shot didn’t cover the spread. The Kansas City Chiefs were in fantastic shape in that competition against the number until late in the 4th quarter. The Colts played better than the Kansas City Chiefs 10-0 and the 4th quarter and won by 10 points to cover the spread. No one really anticipated the Kansas City Chiefs to be unbeaten after that competition anyhow.

Packers and New orleans saints Lose – 2 of the most trendy picks this week were the Packers at Washington and New Orleans in Arizona. Not only did the Packers and the Saints fail to cover the spread, they each lost outright. It seemed every gambler took the New orleans saints and they never really were in position to cover versus Arizona and wound up losing the competition. Other long shots to cover in the beginning Sunday were Jacksonville, Tampa Bay, Chicago and the New york giants. The Jaguars played better than the Bills, Tampa came back to defeat Cincinnati late, the Chicago Bears dominated Carolina whilst New York pummeled Houston.

Ravens, Lions, Falcons Cover – The other three faves that covered along with the Colts in NFL wagering prospects were Baltimore, Detroit and Atlanta. The Ravens and Lions were in charge of their games throughout whilst the Falcons were lucky to cover against Cleveland. Jake Delhomme came into the competition for Cleveland after Seneca Wallace got injured and just threw the competition and the cover away for the Cleveland browns. He threw two interceptions that cost Cleveland the competition.

Wallace, a 4th round pick by the Seahawks in the 2003 NFL Draft, arrived at the Cleveland browns a while back this year. Delhomme was signed at the same time and took the starting quarterback job over Wallace after competing with him in training camp. Nonetheless Wallace has been starting for the Cleveland browns since Delhomme endured a high ankle sprain on September 12. With each of their leading quarterbacks struggling or recuperating from injuries, it could have been an excessive amount of to ask the Cleveland browns to perform well versus the Falcons. Still, it is hard to take the Cleveland browns right now when it is clear that they’re not at 100% with their quarterbacks.

Late Match Longshots – Gamblers that thought things would change in the late games were let down. San Diego was favored at Oakland and found a way to lose yet another competition they ought to have won. Dallas was a quite trendy pick at home against Tennessee but Wade Phillips shown once again he doesn’t have his team ready to play and the Cowboys handed the competition to the Titans. We mentioned the New orleans saints losing at Arizona already. The Sunday night competition had San Francisco hosting Philadelphia and even though the 49ers made it interesting, they couldn’t get past the Eagles, losing 27-24 as three point faves in NFL prospects at the online sports book.


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Football Wagering – Eagles at San Francisco 49ers

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Football betting anticipations have been destroyed for the prospects of the 49ers as they are winless following being made the football betting favorite to win the NFC West. Football betting handicappers are having a tough time receiving a read on the 2-2 Philadelphia Eagles with the key football betting worry being the health of QB Michael Vick.



NBC Sunday Night Football will have the Philadelphia Eagles at 49ers with a kickoff time of 8:25 PM Eastern. The online sports book opened up with San Francisco as a 3 point home favorite.

The Philadelphia Eagles are arriving from a 17-12 home loss to the Washington Redskins as 5 point home favorites to tumble to an in total record of 2-2 straight up and 1-3 with the Football odds. The Philadelphia Eagles have gone under the total in 3 out of 4 games this year.

Michael Vick, who sparked the Philadelphia Eagles offense to win as QB in weeks 2 and 3, hurt his ribs this past week and is doubtful for this competition. Vick has been plagued by well publicized legal difficulties, even aside from his dog fighting conviction a while back. The Philadelphia Eagles took a shot on him when they signed him just in time for the 2009 season, when he was a backup QB behind Kevin Kolb. After proving his worth and behaving as well as he could, Vick was named the starting QB a couple of weeks ago. Vick is working hard to improve his image in the NFL. Kevin Kolb, the initial starting QB who lost his job following a week one injury, is back in the saddle heading topping an 8th ranked attack that had its statistics built in huge part by Vick.

LeSean McCoy has been a valuable tool out of the backfield with 273 yards rushing.

The 49ers were a preseason favorite to win the NFC West but that appears like a long shot now as they are 0-4 straight up and 2-2 with the football odds following their 16-14 loss at Atlanta as 7 point road underdogs. It was the first time San Francisco went under the total this season.

The 49ers dismissed offensive coordinator Jimmy Raye following their week 3 ordeal at Kansas City but it has had no impact to date as they rank 31st in the Football for scoring. Frank Gore and the rushing attack have suffered a sharp drop as the 49ers rank 28th in the NFL on the ground and a poor 27th in the league for points allowed.

Running and defense were the strong points of the team last year and the significant lack of output from those areas has the heat turned full blast on head coach Mike Singletary since he and his staff have been trained by opposite coaching staffs to date in all of their Football betting competitions.

Kolb will be feeling pressure in this one as he takes over for Vick, who won over devotees and team mates with his great performance, and that could play into the 49ers hands. However, San Francisco could be due for a victory nonetheless they must improve in total output from all factors of their competition.


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Football Gambling – San Diego at Oakland Raiders

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Football wagering odds makers have been taken on a roller coaster ride by San Diego as they have seemed both pretty great and pretty poor this football wagering year. Football wagering odds makers have been impressed with the fight of the Raiders in spite of a 1-3 start as they’re offering irregular great football wagering value.



The Oakland Raiders will host the Chargers on Sunday in among the oldest and most bitter rivalries in the AFC with a kickoff time of 4:10 PM and a telecast on CBS. The online sports book opened with San Diego as a 6 point road favorite.

So far it is been all home cooking for the San Diego chargers as they’re 2-2 straight up along with with the Football lines with their victories and payouts arriving at home and their losses on the road. Last week San Diego destroyed Arizona 41-10 as ten point home chalks. The Chargers have risen over the total in three from 4 matches this year.

The Chargers offense has been actually great thus far as it rates 1st total and third in passing with quarterback Philip Rivers making the most from what he has in receivers following losing all pro Vincent Jackson to a suspension and holdout. Jackson was suspended for 3 matches for breaking the NFL’s substance abuse policy. San Diego’s defense has gone up to rank top in the NFL too.

San Diego’s 2 losses were caused in huge part as a result of special teams malfunctions and if they can improve that area of their competition they will be hard to defeat. Running back Michael Tolbert has been a nice supplement to Rivers as he has 281 yards. Tolbert was brought in to the Chargers in 2008 as an undrafted free agent. He hasn’t had a specifically impressive career thus far, but he appears to be earning his keep with the squad.

The Raiders have a record of 1-3 both straight up along with with the football lines however the Oakland Raiders have performed nicely since losing at Tennessee in a blowout on starting day. Oakland is arriving off a tough 31-24 home loss to the Texans as 3.5 home long shots. The Oakland Raiders rose over the total for the third time in 4 matches a week ago.

The Oakland offense has responded to the quarterback change from Jason Campbell to Bruce Gradkowski and has gone up to 9th in the NFL. Gradowski, a 6th round pick from the 2006 NFL Draft, has been moved around throughout his Football career and now finds himself with the Oakland Raiders. He took over the starting job from Campbell in the course of Week 2 of this year and led the Oakland Raiders to win over the Rams. The defense rates 12th for yards permitted but 29th for points allowed.

The Oakland pass defense has been leaky and the principal difficulty for their record, since it rates next to last in the Football, which is a scary thought when going up against Rivers.

Whilst this isn’t a great Football wagering competition for the Oakland Raiders, they will figure to give a formidable effort at home as they have been competitive in all but one competition thus far.


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Football Wagering – Vikings at New York Jets

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NFL gambling will close up the 5th week of the season with a fascinating Monday Night ESPN football gambling game as the Jets host the Minnesota Vikings. NFL gambling supporters will see Vikings quarterback Brett Favre return to the team he played for in the 2008 football gambling season before leaving with plenty of criticism from his fellow team members.



Kickoff Monday is set for 8:40 PM Eastern and the online sports book started out with the Jets as 4 point home favorites.

The Minnesota Vikings are arriving from a essential bye week after getting their first win and payout of the season over Detroit to strengthen their overall record to 1-2 straight up and with the NFL probabilities.

The Vikings have gone below the total in all 3 of their matches. Minnesota made major news this week as they obtained a essential breakaway receiving menace in Randy Moss, who comes from New England for a draft pick. Minnesota and quarterback Brett Favre rate 24th in passing and Moss was brought in to jumpstart the attack. Moss was drafted by the Vikings in the first round of the 1998 NFL Draft. He holds records for single season TD reception and for single season TD reception for a rookie. He played with the Vikings for seven seasons before being traded to the Oakland raiders. He was there for a season before being traded to the Patriots for 3 seasons, after which he was traded to the Vikings where he was reunited with his former team. Brett Favre, now his teammate, had once vied for Moss to be traded to the Packers. He said at the time that no one in the NFL might put fear into folks more than Randy Moss.

Adrian Peterson has been the greater part of the offense with 392 yards rushing as Minnesota has the 5th rated ground attack and number 4 defense in football.

The New York Jets have a record of 3-1 both straight up and with the football probabilities with 3 of their matches going over the total. They haven’t lost since beginning night thanks in large part to quarterback Mark Sanchez’s improved play and a defense that ranks 7th for points permitted.

LaDainian Tomlinson has 341 yards to head the Jets 2nd rated ground attack. The Jets won an effortless 38-14 payout at Buffalo a week ago.

There will be plenty of intangible drama for this NFL gambling game as Moss and Favre will team up for the first time after pining plenty of years for each other. There will be significant strain on the Vikings and Favre as a loss puts them into a 1-3 hole that might be too deep to climb out of in the competitive NFC playoff contest.

Favre will of course want to upstage his former fellow team members that talked badly of him after he left in 2008 and furthermore make up for a poor national TV performance on beginning night. The Jets have their Super Bowl swagger back in full stride and will be difficult to defeat.

The Vikings defense could hold the key element to this match against Sanchez and the improved Jets offense.


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Football Gambling – Atlanta Falcons at Cleveland Browns

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Football betting oddsmakers remain impressed with the Atlanta Falcons as they’ve won 3 sequential competitions after losing their NFL betting starter. Football betting devotees were surprised by the Cleveland Browns upset home win over the Bengals but doubts remain with NFL betting oddsmakers.



The Cleveland Browns will host the Atlanta Falcons at 1:05 PM Eastern on Sunday with a FOX telecast. The online sports book opened up with Atlanta as a 3 point road favorite and with an over/under of 41.

There were greater than a few questions about the legitimacy of the Atlanta Falcons after their opening day loss at Pittsburgh versus a Steelers team down to third string at quarterback. But Atlanta has roared back with victories over Arizona, New Orleans, and San Francisco to stand at 3-1 straight up and 2-2 with the NFL lines.

The Falcons offense proceeds to get better by the week and now ranks sixth best in the NFL. The attack is one of the better balanced in the league and quarterback Matt Ryan possesses an 86.3 QB rating with a 6/3 touchdown/interception ratio. Ryan was obtained during the 2008 NFL Draft as the third total pick by the Atlanta Falcons. He started all 16 competitions of his rookie year for the Falcons and directed them to the playoffs with a 11-5 year record. His performance earned him the 2008 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year respects.

Michael Turner has rushed for 281 yards whereas Jason Snelling has 226. Roddy White currently has 32 receptions for the year. The Atlanta defense has also been solid and ranks sixth for points granted.

The Cleveland Browns are arriving off their first win of the year as they upset the Bengals 23-20 as 1.5 point home underdogs to progress their record to 1-3 straight up and 2-2 with the NFL lines. Cleveland ranks an equally negative 22nd in the NFL for both offense and defense.

Seneca Wallace went on to fill in for injured starting quarterback Jake Delhomme and passed for 184 yards and a touchdown last week whereas Peyton Hillis obtained 102 yards rushing with 1 touchdown. The defense also advanced versus Cincinnati with 4 sacks and 2 takeaways. Wallace currently has an 82.2 QB rating but the status of Delhomme and his ankle is still up in the air for this game.

Wallace was a fourth round pick in the 2003 NFL Draft by the Seahawks. He was traded to the Cleveland Browns in return for a conditional pick in the 2011 NFL Draft earlier this year. The switch reunites him with Mike Holmgren, earlier his coach with the Seattle Seahawks and now the president of the Browns.

The greatest risk for Atlanta in this NFL betting game would be to take the Browns lightly as Cincinnati discovered last week. Cleveland plays hard for head coach Eric Mangini and close to knocked off the Ravens the week before.
Atlanta should be able to move the ball on the Browns and as long as they do not turn the ball over and make mental errors they would rate the edge.


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NFL Football Betting – Arizona versus San Diego

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When San Diego sponsors Arizona, NFL football Sports Gambling handicappers will have their choice of two teams that are sending out mixed pro football wagering signals so far. NFL football wagering fanatics are going to have to try and decide the overall pro football wagering value of each sporadic side and try and determine which version of each squad will make an appearance.



The San Diego Chargers opened at the NFL sportsbook as 8 point home favorites over the Arizona Cardinals with an over/under of 46. The game will be aired on FOX and kickoff is set for 4:20 PM Eastern.

The San Diego Chargers pattern of slow starts under 4th year coach Norv Turner proceeds as they have a NFL sports wagering record of 1-2 both straight up and vs the spread. The San Diego Chargers are coming off a 27-20 loss at Seattle in which they allowed 2 kickoff returns for TDs.

San Diego’s special teams has killed them in their 2 losses as Kansas City beat them on the strength of a touchdown punt return in the Monday Night opener, though the squad ranks 1st in the NFL for offense and 4th in total for defense.

Arizona escaped with a 24-23 win over Oakland as the Raiders blew a 32 yard field goal at the gun last week. Arizona failed to cover as 5.5 point home chalks. The Cardinals now stand at only 1-2 vs the spread but 2-1 straight up. Derek Anderson has not been a Kurt Warner imitator at quarterback as he has a 67.6 QB rating.

The Cardinals rank near the bottom of NFL football betting for both offense and defense and have not been in their playoff form of the past 2 years.

Arizona has paid out in 10 from their last 12 games as an underdog but that is offset by their mark of 7-22 vs the spread in road games versus teams with losing record at home. Arizona has been a fantastic long term over play as a road longshot with a mark of 40-14 above the number.

San Diego has lost only 9 from their last 32 games vs the spread when coming off a straight up loss but has failed to get the money 6 from their last 7 games as a chalk. The road team has paid out in 5 consecutive NFL Football betting competitions between these two teams.


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Browns versus Cincinnati in Football Betting

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Football betting competition this weekend will include one of the better rivalries in the NFL with the All-Ohio/AFC North football betting matchup of Cleveland vs Cincinnati. Football betting supporters will have their choice of two hated foes that are struggling on offense so far and are trying to break out with a big football gambling payout.



The Bengals have gone under the total in 2 from 3 competitions and have a NFL betting record of 2-1 both straight up and versus the spread. Despite winning their last 2 competitions the Cincinnati Bengals are getting worse on offense as all the major money talent they brought in to support quarterback Carson Palmer is yet to deliver.

The unit is yet to gel and is making a lot of blunders while Palmer is well off his pace of a year ago. The defense ranks ninth in total in the league and has been respectable.

The Cleveland Browns have a NFL gambling record of 0-3 straight up and 1-2 versus the spread with just 1 of their 3 competitions going over the total. It has been a frustrating start in the best online casino sports betting for the Browns and beleaguered head coach Eric Mangini who is back on the hot seat.

The Browns rank 27th in the league for scoring as backup quarterback Seneca Wallace has been unable to generate a steady attack while quarterback Jake Delhomme has been wounded after an encouraging preseason. Peyton Hills has been outstanding with 220 yards.

Delhomme is questionable for Sunday’s competition as his ankle is still not at 100%. The Browns are arriving off a hard fought 24-17 loss at Baltimore as 12 point long shots.

The Bengals have gone under the total in 20 from their last 28 competitions following a payoff versus the spread. Cincinnati is just 2-7 versus the spread as a road fave and has gotten the money in just 3 from their last 11 competitions in total. In 7 from their last 10 competitions following a straight up loss, the Browns have gone under the total.

Cleveland has covered the spread in eight from their last 10 competitions in total. The two teams have gone under the total in 8 of their last 11 meetings at Cleveland and in 4 from the last 5 competitions in total and the long shot has posted 6 consecutive football betting payouts in this series.


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AJ Smith’s Ego Dominates Chargers at the Sportsbook

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Sportsbook oddsmakers respect the fact that under the leadership of general manager AJ Smith the San Diego Chargers have become a perennial playoff contender. What they don’t value is the ever growing amount of evidence that Smith’s ego is blocking the San Diego Chargers from going all the way.



1st Tell in 2006 – Before suffering a strange and heartbreaking sportsbook online payoff loss to the New England Patriots in which they fumbled a 4th quarter interception to give New England a stay of execution, the San Diego Chargers rolled to a remarkable record of 14-2 in the 2006 year under then head coach Marty Schottenheimer. Despite the fantastic year and promising future Smith and Schottenheimer clashed repeatedly and Smith won the power struggle with ownership and executed the termination of Schottenheimer.

A Weak Substitution – Smith rapidly moved to replace the strong and revered Schottenheimer with Norv Turner, who had failed at earlier head coaching jobs with the Redskins and Oakland Raiders. Under Turner the San Diego Chargers lost appeal with oddsmakers at the online sportsbook as they slid to 11-5 in 2007 and then 8-8 in 2008 as Turner reminded everyone why he was let go twice as a NFL head coach. Fans began to wonder how things might have gone had Schottenheimer remained as he was constructing a juggernaut.

Slight Recuperation – To Smith’s credit he has produced a strong offensive squad headed by All Pro quarterback Philip Rivers. Turner is revered as a reliable offensive coach as he was offensive coordinator for the Dallas Cowboys when they were Super Bowl champions under Jimmy Johnson and a very rewarding sportsbook commodity.

San Diego improved to 12-4 a year ago but then blew their playoff competition with the upstart New York Jets to ruin what appeared to be a perhaps promising playoff run in sports book gambling.

Hardball – Smith’s stone-wall/hardball tactics used versus the holdouts of essential participants including ace wideout Vincent Jackson has been his most recent brush with controversy. Including the Minnesota Vikings, who are in desperate need of a receiver that can stretch the field, plenty of teams were willing to trade for Jackson. The word among NFL authorities was that Smith was being purposefully unreasonable in order to ruin Jackson and keep him held hostage. This was only the most recent of plenty of Smith antics in which he’d rather win the battle and lose the war. His pettiness is why San Diego hasn’t competed in a Super Bowl despite being a sportsbook online fave to do so.


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Pro Football Wagering – Hail to the Chiefs

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NFL betting oddsmakers had better start taking the Kansas City Chiefs seriously after their 31-10 home win over the San Francisco 49ers for a 3-0 start to the year.



Cash Cow – In a clear case of the wrong team being liked, the Kansas City Chiefs easily won the NFL bet as 2.5 point home longshots. Kansas City has covered the spread in all three of their matches to date this season while going under the total in 2 from 3 matches. This is a distinct Kansas City Chiefs team from the one that commenced the 2009 year with four sequential losses in Sports Gambling.

San Francisco Treat – The Chiefs and quarterback Matt Cassel have struggled offensively however the second year starter for Kansas City lit up the 49ers defense for 16-27, good for 250 yards and 3 touchdowns. Thomas Jones rushed for 95 yards on 19 carries in the greatest showing yet for new offensive coordinator Charlie Weiss while Jamaal Charles continued to demonstrate that he is one of the better backs in the league as he gained 97 yards on 12 carries. The Kansas City Chiefs found the 49ers to be a yummy San Francisco Treat as they held a 457-251 edge in total yards and a 21-11 first down advantage.

Nightmare Start – The 49ers were one of the favorites at the NFL sportsbook to win the NFC West and make the playoffs but are now in the hole at 0-3 straight up and 1-2 vs the spread with none of their matches yet to go under the total. It comes as a shock to many oddsmakers that his team was so thoroughly dominated, specifically physically, by Kansas City when head coach Mike Singletary looked to be making progress going into this year. Singletary is known for being a formidable defensive coach and yet the 49ers rank 31st for points permitted after 3 weeks of action. In the mean time the other identified strength of the team, rushing, has been dismal not to mention the San Francisco ground attack ranks 27th in NFL wagering.

Romeo Affair – One of several most appealing reasons to make a NFL bet with Kansas City is their defense that is rated 4th in the NFL for points granted and sixth vs the rush. Kansas City kept the lauded Frank Gore of San Francisco to just 43 yards on 15 carries in the win.


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